Utah

Utah's draw uses bonus points with a squared weighting formula: an applicant with five points gets (5+1)² = 36 entries in the draw. Every hunt runs through two stages — a bonus-point-weighted draw for most permits, followed by a random draw for the remainder.

Because the state does not publish the data needed to calculate each stage separately, our projections show combined overall odds across both stages. We use five years of historical data (2021-2025), first filling in any gaps within each year, then computing a weighted average that puts more emphasis on recent seasons.

For point levels higher than anything in the historical record, we take a conservative approach: if a hunt has previously shown 100% odds at some level, we extend that guarantee to all higher levels; otherwise, we hold the last known odds flat rather than extrapolating into the unknown.

Utah's odds come from six types of official DWR draw reports — big game limited entry, general season deer, lifetime deer, Dedicated Hunter (adult and youth), and youth elk — covering over 91,000 historical records. Projections span nine species: elk, mule deer, pronghorn, moose, bison, mountain goat, and both Rocky Mountain and desert bighorn sheep.