Idaho

Idaho uses a pure random draw with no bonus or preference point system. Every applicant has an equal chance regardless of how many previous applications they have submitted.

Our projections are based on five years of official controlled hunt draw statistics (2021-2025), weighted to give more importance to recent years. When we see a consistent decline in draw odds over three or more years in a row — a drop of more than 15% — we project that decline forward rather than averaging it away, so the estimate better reflects growing competition. For stable or improving trends, we use the standard weighted average.

One challenge unique to Idaho is that hunt numbers change frequently: between 33% and 41% of hunt numbers are reassigned between seasons due to periodic program reorganizations. To track the same hunt opportunity reliably across years, we built a matching system that connects hunt numbers that carry over from season to season and uses location-based matching for ones that were renumbered.

Projections use first-drawing data only — the second drawing for leftover tags operates differently and is not included. Species covered include deer, elk, pronghorn, moose, bighorn sheep, mountain goat, and California bighorn sheep.