Arizona

Arizona uses a three-pass bonus point draw where each bonus point adds extra entries to your application, improving your odds but never guaranteeing a tag. Our projected odds come from official AZGFD Bonus Point Reports, which record exactly how many applicants applied and how many permits were issued at each point level.

We analyzed two years of reports (2024-2025) across Arizona's three independent draw cycles: fall (deer, bighorn, bison), elk and pronghorn, and spring (javelina, bison). For the spring 2026 cycle, the draw had already taken place at the time of our analysis, so we use actual results. For the fall and elk/pronghorn cycles, we project forward using a weighted two-year average that puts more emphasis on the most recent year.

Because Arizona's per-point data is only available from 2024 onward, most projections are based on two years of data, which is reflected in medium confidence ratings. We verify that projected odds never go down as bonus points increase, and we fill any gaps in the point range by estimating between known values.

The result is a complete odds picture from zero points up to the highest level observed (as high as 48 for some hunts), giving applicants a realistic sense of how their accumulated bonus points affect their chances across all draw species.